The Political Consequences of Emergency Zones (PID talk w/ Lunch)

Aysegul Aydin

Title: The Political Consequences of Emergency Zones: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract: Are emergency zones effective counterinsurgency measures? In response to the Kurdish rebellion, the Turkish state put thirteen provinces under emergency rule (1987-2002). In this paper, we investigate the link between emergency rule and electoral support for the pro-insurgent party. First, using matching methods, we show that provinces put under emergency rule were more likely to vote for the pro-insurgent party. Second, using sub-province level data, we investigate which counterinsurgency practices worked as a mechanism to connect emergency rule to pro-insurgent vote. We find that detentions targeting civilians systematically shifted electoral preferences toward the pro-insurgent party. These results show that indiscriminate violence comes with unintended consequences for the counterinsurgent

Bio: Aysegul Aydin is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado-Boulder. Her research focuses on the dynamics of political violence and civil wars. She is particularly interested in civil war processes and their transformative effect on societies. Aydin’s first book, Foreign Powers and Intervention in Armed Conflicts (Stanford University Press, 2012) examines the role of foreign direct investment and preferential trade agreements in motivating external states to intervene in armed conflicts. Her second book, Zones of Rebellion: Kurdish Rebels and the Turkish State (Cornell University Press, 2015), co-authored with Cem Emrence, presents an analytical account of violence in the Turkish civil war. Aydin’s articles appeared in the Journal of Politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution, European Journal of International Relations, among others